Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Which timeframe to trade ?

Let's talk about selecting a timeframe to trade.

Generally, to make successful trades, a trader must follow these rules
  1. Know the current direction of the trend and assume it will continue.
  2. Place the trade in the direction of that trend.
  3. Exit the trade to make profit.
No matter what timeframe you choose, if you can do these in the timeframe of choice, you'll most likely profit.

So how do I choose a good timeframe? Let's do a simple observation. Open your favorite pair (mine is EURUSD aka Fiber). Look at the 5 mins, 30 mins, 1 hour and Daily charts. Try to find a long trend (slope around 45 degree) in each of the timeframes. You will notice that :
  • the duration of any bull run is increasing as the timeframe increases, meaning a bull run in Daily charts is much longer than the bull run in 5 mins charts.
The pictures below use 45 degree trends. You can use any degree higher than 30 that you like. Don't worry about the pips in those trends. To make profits you must worry about the trend first.



Alright ladies and gentlemen, please refer to Rule 1 above. Since, you must assume the trend to continue, which timeframe will enhance the accuracy of your assumption? You are right, it's the Daily charts. The trends in Daily charts are longer and stronger than trends in lower timeframes. You have ample time to jump into the market. Still remember "the trend is your friend" ? A stronger friend is even better, don't you think ? :)

This is why scalping is very difficult for newbies. The trend is too short and many times, when newbies enter the trade, the trend has reversed.

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