Friday, October 12, 2007

Trades status


I have a long position from 1.4040 before my trailing stop got hit at 1.4160. Immediately after hitting my stop loss, Fiber surged 70 pips higher. Ahh ... feel like crying upon seeing that, but hey this is forex and shit happens all the time. Just dont forget, profit is still profit. :)

Next plan : Looking for short opportunity around 1.4150 areas. (You heard me right, I'm shorting again)

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Trade status

Finally, my first short position in this pair. Things are looking good for now. I'm aiming for 1.3900 for this position. Go! go! Fiber.

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Trade Status

I entered a long position at 1.4115. The trade is looking good despite my suspicion that the market is near it's short-term top.

Friday, September 21, 2007

Up up and away!!

The Fiber shot up like a rocket!!! At times like this all we have to do is to trail our stop loss. Will Fiber break through 1.4100 on Friday ? We shall see. The bull is strong, really strong! Like a RedBull =).

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Trade Status : Change of plan!


Woot! US Federal Reserve reduced the interest rate more than anticipated. Fiber surged 100+ pips through 1.3900 like an express train, never looking back. I placed a pending buy order to buy the dip at 1.3950 and the order was filled several hours later. Let's hope for the best. The Fiber shall skyrocket as the bull is unstoppable.

As always, I could be wwwwrrooonnggg !!!! =)

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Trades status


The previous positions was stopped out. I'm looking forward to enter Long at 1.3800.

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Trades Status


Trades are doing fine. Let's ride the wave up to 1.4000. =)

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

I was wrong =(

I was wrong. Fiber went up higher, touching the 3875 level. I'm going to wait for retracement down to 3850 to enter a long position.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Fiber is showing signs of exhaustion

Fiber is showing signs of exhaustion. I closed the previous trade at 104 pips profits. The next step is to re-enter long position at 3700-ish. It seems to me that most of the traders are already in. When everyone is long, it's time to short/close long position and take profit. =)

As usual, I could be wwwrrrooonnnggg =)

Monday, September 10, 2007

Fiber surged even higher on Monday =)


Fiber breached the 1.3800 level this evening. Is it really on it's way to 1.4000 ? I have feeling that it will retrace down to 1.3700 before continuing up to 1.4000. Anyway, I'm going to ride this trend and trail my stop loss. I have 86 pips secured. Yeehaa!

Saturday, September 8, 2007

My reply at Forexfactory

Quote:
Originally Posted by yakumojpn View Post
Everybody is talking about how important the money management is, but still there's only threads about EMA5 crossing over EMA13 and so on with 30 pips stop and 60 pips limit.

I guess there should be much more about money management than some stop loss, limit order, trailing stop, trade per 1% of your account.

So please share some clever ideas for my money management, thanks.
Use a fixed % of exposure in each trade.
Let's say you choose 2%

If you have USD 100 ... you risk USD 2 (calculate appropriate stop loss that's equivalent to this USD 2). If your fund is small, consider using brokers like Oanda (you can even buy 1 unit).

Let's say you lose ... you are left with USD 98.
Next trade, you risk 2% of USD 98 ...

If you notice, when you are on a winning streak (experienced trader has more winning streaks than newbies do) .. you will be betting bigger and bigger each time ... this has the compounding effect. You bet more and more with the "markets" money. Many traders in Market Wizards "trades bigger and bigger when they are on a winning streak".
Fixed % risk is easy and it gets the job done. If you dont trust me on this, trust Merlin .. LOL.

If you use a broker that allow 1 unit lot size, it's very difficult for even a newbie to completely destroy his account if he follows this fixed % rule. Imagine this situation:

You have a fund and for every person you meet, you tell them to take 2% of the fund. Guess how many person you need to meet to finish the fund? Answer : the fund will never finish (ideally).

What happens if you tell everyone to donate 2% of the fund instead ? The fund will grow again exponentially no matter how much money has been taken out before.

In this business, as long as you survive the battle, you will most probably win. It's just a matter of time.

Friday, September 7, 2007

Trade : After NFP

Woot! That's a huge jump ... almost 100 pips in a few minutes. Let's hope that the price will stay above 3700 till end of the day.

Trade : Before NFP


Action time! In one hour, we will have the NFP announcement. I expect the NFP will favor the Euro and Fiber will break 1.3700 once and for all. I have a position opened at 1.3680.

As usual, I could be wrong! =)

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Trade Status


There wasn't much action from Fiber on Monday. However, the price had bounced off a psychological support level of 1.3600. It's a good time to go long.

According to Forexfactory, US ISM Manufacturing Index report is coming out today. Hopefully, this will propel the Fiber up to 1.3700. =)

Sunday, September 2, 2007

My post at Forexfactory

From Forexfactory
Quote:
One last thing - you yourself said that "normally"(with no initial position) you would have waited for break confirmation with a close outside. So what makes your current profit so expendable that you didn't think it more sensible to wait in this situation as well?
Had you seen this move and behavior without seeing the triangle, would your behavior / trade handling have gone differently?
Which way of dealing with the setup, if it is one for you, is the more profitable/sensible one and does it change merely by the outset of your open positions or is it a self-contained logic each time, regardless of whether what you have already have open before it or not?

Nothing of the above meant as an insult, but as thought provoking.
No worries SL. I appreciate the feedback.

The Fiber had been ranging between 3600 and 3700 for a few days and I've been making some profit from that.

From my experience, triangles/wedges is only reliable 50% of the time.

But since I can lose 0 pips (worst case) by taking the risk, it looked attractive to pyramid. This kind of opportunity dont come very often and it (pyramiding) had worked for me a few times.

In a ranging market, its hard for trend-trader to make money, let alone building profitable pyramid. But I had a chance to build a pyramid in a ranging market at 0 pips cost. Too tempting.

On second thought, it would be more sensible (and easier) to just wait for the confirmation (Daily candle close). But by waiting, I need to give up the chance to pyramid.

That's what I was thinking about back then.

Saturday, September 1, 2007

My Reply at Forexfactory

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
Hi cesarnc,

I don't.

I'm actually really curious about the questions. So far neither you nor luqmanz really answered them(although luq answered/gave a suggestion for the "what does it mean" part, thanks! =) ).

There's a reason I asked them because even though sure I can project targets around into space(high-low-point of wedge/triangle, projected from possible break area), I was wondering what the point of the info was if there is no setup attached to it.

No setup = no trade.
...

SeekingLight
Hi SL,

Let me share with you how I use this info (triangles/wedges) in my trading.

At that time, I had a long position at 1.3600. Price looked strong to me so I think "hey the price looks so positive, why not take a little more risk, triangles is a trend- continuation formation anyway". I followed the age-old wisdom "never average down, just average up".

Worst case scenario, price touches 3700 and reversed.
Stop loss at 3650 for all position.
Long @ 3600 = 50 pips
Long @ 3700 = -50 pips

Net 0 pips for the risk taken. (Good bargain).

I placed a buy order at 1.3700.

Price went up to 1.3718. Stop loss moved to 1.3668 (50 pips trailing stop).
Price retraced. Stop loss got hit.
1) Position 1 @ 1.3600 = 68 pips profits
2) Position 2 @ 1.3700 = -32 pips

Net profit 36 pips.

If I dont have a position at 1.3600, I wouldn't take the 3700 trade. I'll wait till price close higher than 3700 on Friday.

Hope this helps. :-)

Trades Status - Crazy night

What a crazy night!

Market went through 1.3700, triggered my buy order there, touched 1.3718 and retraced back to 1.3624 after hitting my stop losses at 1.3650 and 1.3626.
I should have moved the stop loss up to 1.3668 but I was at Stadium Merdeka celebrating the Merdeka. Sigh.

Net loss is 24 pips. If I moved the stop loss, it would have been a net 36 pips profit.

Next strategy :
1) Buy at 1.3600.

Friday, August 31, 2007

What happens during triangles formation ?

Below is my reply at Forexfactory.com


Originally Posted by SeekingLight View Post
How many of these have you seen and traded before and how certain are you of pattern probability and direction?
What are your triggers and possible endpoints / projected targets?

What does the formation mean in itself?

Triangles are psychological.

If the previous trend is bullish

1) the upper side (bearish) shows a selling (profit-taking). Selling lower and lower because traders are afraid if the price never return to the last maxima.

e.g : Oh crap... price is going down. 1800 is the highest, I'll sell at 1780 when it comes back there).

2) the lower side (bullish) shows people (who previously took profit or missed the last rally) are buying the dips, they are buying higher and higher because they are afraid of missing the move.

e.g : Oh crap again.... 1600 seems like a support, it 1650 now .. I'll buy limit at 1620

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Trade Status

The trailing stop at 1.3630 got hit and 30 pips of profit is secured. Price dropped further down to 1.3600 and triggered my buy limit order before bouncing up again. 1.3600 seems like a strong support.

Trades Status - Taking Profit


I closed the position bought at 1.3400 for 260 pips profit. I'm looking forward to enter another position at 1.3700. 1.3690 is a resistance that needs to be breached for Fiber to have a strong breakout.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Trades Status


I had closed the last two positions (bought at 1.3500 and 1.3600) at 1.3660 to secure the profits because it looked like the bull was out of steam (see the prices between the 2 yellow lines, it's a rounding top formation).

After that, I placed a pending buy order at 1.3600 and so far the trade is working fine. This is what we call buying the dips.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Trades Status on Monday

Trades are working fine. I wonder what will happen by Tuesday. Will it break the level 1.3700?
I bet it would.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Trades Status


Here's the current standings of the trades. Now, we are really going somewhere. :-)
Is the Fiber on it's way to 1.4000 now?

Trade Status

Trades are working even better. I've moved the stop losses up. The first position is now my long-term position. I'm aiming for around 300-400 pips profit (100-150 pips stop loss) with this position and the second position is the short term position with tight 50 pips stop loss.

I will enter another position if the price hit 1.3525.

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Trade Status

Trades are working good. Perhaps the US subprime mortgage anxiety has come to an end?

Friday, August 17, 2007

Trades Status

The last trades were gone. Lost some money again. Here's the current Fiber position bought at 1.3400 and Cable bought at 1.3800-ish.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Trades Update

Here's the current positions that I have. The last 2 trades were stopped out at break-even. Hopefully, these two new trades will make some money. Let's what will we have on Monday.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Trades status


Here's the current standings. Cable position got stopped out.
Possibly Fiber is truly on it's way to 1.3400?

Cheers.

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Cable update


The Cable moved up just a little bit on Friday despite the Fiber's bull leap. It's currently under a strong bull phase and I'm looking forward to 2.06 very soon.

Fiber update


The Fiber suddenly went up and hit the 1.3800 on Friday. I have good feelings for the pair to go even higher next week. 1.3650 is indeed the lowest support for the retracement from 1.3850. The big players are already placing their new long positions. Let's ride the wave for the next 1-2 weeks. :-)

Anyway, these are my current positions.

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Trades looking good for now

On Monday, I checked the charts and I found out that Fiber's low on Friday was 1.3620, 20 pips away from my target of 1.3600. So I decided to jump in.

Cable hit a support level at 2.02. I entered a long position there as well.

I have a bit of problem. I really wanted to pyramid because this is the best time to pyramid, but I'm out of margin. This is what I hate about Oanda. 1:50 leverage is too damn low. The ideal leverage for me is 1:100.

Let's see how the trades turn out today.

Friday, July 27, 2007

Ahah, I screwed up

I was supposed to enter a buy limit order at 1.3790 .. not 1.3770 ... Fiber just touched 1.3770 yesterday and moved down hitting my stop loss at 1.3720 today during European open. Boo hoo!

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Woot Fiber is under correction.

I lost some money there. Stop loss was hit at 1.3790. The Fiber suddenly crashed 100 pips, down to 1.3700 yesterday.
I was bullish at that time and thanks to risk management, it doesn't hurt much. Whatever you do in this business, make sure you never break your risk management rules. My guts is telling me the market will go down further to 3600 perhaps.

The next plan is to buy at 1.3770 or 1.3600.

Why not short ? I rarely short a bull market. I lose money each time I do that. LOL. Just sticking to what works for me.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Not much action on Monday.

There isn't much to talk about Fiber. The price retraced a little bit before it hit the support level at 1.3790 for the third time. I choose to do nothing for now.

To quote Jesse Livermore :-

"It is never your thinking that makes big money, it's the sitting."

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Fiber is looking good


Fiber penetrated the resistance at 1.3830, moved down a little bit to hit a support at 1.3810 before finishing at 1.3822. Fiber is looking good with support levels that keep increasing and a broken resistance. 1.4000 is pretty much in sight.

Let's hope for another bull-run next week.

Friday, July 20, 2007

Welcome Mr Cable.


From now on, I'll be following Cable as well. The cable is exhibiting interesting attributes. I'm hoping to get a buy signal for Cable in 2-3 weeks. I'm aiming to buy between 2.01 - 2.02.

In case you are wondering why GBP/USD is called cable, here's the story. Many years ago, the banks traded GBP/USD using the most advanced communication technology at that time, the cable.

On the other hand, EUR/USD is probably called Fiber because fiber-optics is today's latest technology. LOL

Look at this spectacular Cable bull-run. I bet a lot of people made millions from this alone.

Fiber's positioning for an upside breakout ?


From the chart, Fiber attempted to break through the resistance of 1.3830 but failed. However the support levels seem to be increasing from 1.3750 to 1.3790. In my POV, Fiber is forming a support level near 1.3800, which is an important psychological support. This could be a sign of an imminent upside breakout (remember the triangles pattern?). It's a good idea to enter a position.

Currently, I have a long position @ 1.3800. As usual, I could be wrong.

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Seems like Bernanke's speech is not helping USD.

My buy limit @ 1.3800 was triggered. Seems like 1.3750 is indeed a very strong support for Fiber. If nothing else is going to cool the bull-train down, we can expect Fiber to hit 1.4000 very soon. This is a good time to pyramid.

Let's see how Fiber's going to behave today.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Oops lost some money there.

My Stop Loss at 1.3765 got hit. I lost some money there.
For now, I'm gonna wait for Bernanke speech. I have new pending orders in place.


1.3750 seems like a nice support.

Buy Limit @ 1.3800
Buy Limit @ 1.3700

Let's see what Bernanke has for us tonight. Cheers.

Which timeframe to trade ?

Let's talk about selecting a timeframe to trade.

Generally, to make successful trades, a trader must follow these rules
  1. Know the current direction of the trend and assume it will continue.
  2. Place the trade in the direction of that trend.
  3. Exit the trade to make profit.
No matter what timeframe you choose, if you can do these in the timeframe of choice, you'll most likely profit.

So how do I choose a good timeframe? Let's do a simple observation. Open your favorite pair (mine is EURUSD aka Fiber). Look at the 5 mins, 30 mins, 1 hour and Daily charts. Try to find a long trend (slope around 45 degree) in each of the timeframes. You will notice that :
  • the duration of any bull run is increasing as the timeframe increases, meaning a bull run in Daily charts is much longer than the bull run in 5 mins charts.
The pictures below use 45 degree trends. You can use any degree higher than 30 that you like. Don't worry about the pips in those trends. To make profits you must worry about the trend first.



Alright ladies and gentlemen, please refer to Rule 1 above. Since, you must assume the trend to continue, which timeframe will enhance the accuracy of your assumption? You are right, it's the Daily charts. The trends in Daily charts are longer and stronger than trends in lower timeframes. You have ample time to jump into the market. Still remember "the trend is your friend" ? A stronger friend is even better, don't you think ? :)

This is why scalping is very difficult for newbies. The trend is too short and many times, when newbies enter the trade, the trend has reversed.