Trade Status

I entered a long position at 1.4115. The trade is looking good despite my suspicion that the market is near it's short-term top.

Up up and away!!

The Fiber shot up like a rocket!!! At times like this all we have to do is to trail our stop loss. Will Fiber break through 1.4100 on Friday ? We shall see. The bull is strong, really strong! Like a RedBull =).

Trade Status : Change of plan!

Woot! US Federal Reserve reduced the interest rate more than anticipated. Fiber surged 100+ pips through 1.3900 like an express train, never looking back. I placed a pending buy order to buy the dip at 1.3950 and the order was filled several hours later. Let's hope for the best. The Fiber shall skyrocket as the bull is unstoppable.

As always, I could be wwwwrrooonnggg !!!! =)

Trades status

The previous positions was stopped out. I'm looking forward to enter Long at 1.3800.

Trades Status

Trades are doing fine. Let's ride the wave up to 1.4000. =)

I was wrong =(

I was wrong. Fiber went up higher, touching the 3875 level. I'm going to wait for retracement down to 3850 to enter a long position.

Fiber is showing signs of exhaustion

Fiber is showing signs of exhaustion. I closed the previous trade at 104 pips profits. The next step is to re-enter long position at 3700-ish. It seems to me that most of the traders are already in. When everyone is long, it's time to short/close long position and take profit. =)

As usual, I could be wwwrrrooonnnggg =)

Fiber surged even higher on Monday =)

Fiber breached the 1.3800 level this evening. Is it really on it's way to 1.4000 ? I have feeling that it will retrace down to 1.3700 before continuing up to 1.4000. Anyway, I'm going to ride this trend and trail my stop loss. I have 86 pips secured. Yeehaa!

My reply at Forexfactory

Quote:

Originally Posted by yakumojpn Everybody is talking about how important the money management is, but still there's only threads about EMA5 crossing over EMA13 and so on with 30 pips stop and 60 pips limit. I guess there should be much more about money management than some stop loss, limit order, trailing stop, trade per 1% of your account. So please share some clever ideas for my money management, thanks.

Use a fixed % of exposure in each trade.
Let's say you choose 2%

If you have USD 100 ... you risk USD 2 (calculate appropriate stop loss that's equivalent to this USD 2). If your fund is small, consider using brokers like Oanda (you can even buy 1 unit).

Let's say you lose ... you are left with USD 98.
Next trade, you risk 2% of USD 98 ...

If you notice, when you are on a winning streak (experienced trader has more winning streaks than newbies do) .. you will be betting bigger and bigger each time ... this has the compounding effect. You bet more and more with the "markets" money. Many traders in Market Wizards "trades bigger and bigger when they are on a winning streak".
Fixed % risk is easy and it gets the job done. If you dont trust me on this, trust Merlin .. LOL.

If you use a broker that allow 1 unit lot size, it's very difficult for even a newbie to completely destroy his account if he follows this fixed % rule. Imagine this situation:

You have a fund and for every person you meet, you tell them to take 2% of the fund. Guess how many person you need to meet to finish the fund? Answer : the fund will never finish (ideally).

What happens if you tell everyone to donate 2% of the fund instead ? The fund will grow again exponentially no matter how much money has been taken out before.

In this business, as long as you survive the battle, you will most probably win. It's just a matter of time.

Trade : After NFP

Woot! That's a huge jump ... almost 100 pips in a few minutes. Let's hope that the price will stay above 3700 till end of the day.

Trade : Before NFP

Action time! In one hour, we will have the NFP announcement. I expect the NFP will favor the Euro and Fiber will break 1.3700 once and for all. I have a position opened at 1.3680.

As usual, I could be wrong! =)

Trade Status

There wasn't much action from Fiber on Monday. However, the price had bounced off a psychological support level of 1.3600. It's a good time to go long.

According to Forexfactory, US ISM Manufacturing Index report is coming out today. Hopefully, this will propel the Fiber up to 1.3700. =)

My post at Forexfactory

From Forexfactory
Quote:

One last thing - you yourself said that "normally"(with no initial position) you would have waited for break confirmation with a close outside. So what makes your current profit so expendable that you didn't think it more sensible to wait in this situation as well? Had you seen this move and behavior without seeing the triangle, would your behavior / trade handling have gone differently? Which way of dealing with the setup, if it is one for you, is the more profitable/sensible one and does it change merely by the outset of your open positions or is it a self-contained logic each time, regardless of whether what you have already have open before it or not? Nothing of the above meant as an insult, but as thought provoking.

No worries SL. I appreciate the feedback.

The Fiber had been ranging between 3600 and 3700 for a few days and I've been making some profit from that.

From my experience, triangles/wedges is only reliable 50% of the time.

But since I can lose 0 pips (worst case) by taking the risk, it looked attractive to pyramid. This kind of opportunity dont come very often and it (pyramiding) had worked for me a few times.

In a ranging market, its hard for trend-trader to make money, let alone building profitable pyramid. But I had a chance to build a pyramid in a ranging market at 0 pips cost. Too tempting.

On second thought, it would be more sensible (and easier) to just wait for the confirmation (Daily candle close). But by waiting, I need to give up the chance to pyramid.

That's what I was thinking about back then.

My Reply at Forexfactory

Quote:

Originally Posted by SeekingLight Hi cesarnc, I don't. I'm actually really curious about the questions. So far neither you nor luqmanz really answered them(although luq answered/gave a suggestion for the "what does it mean" part, thanks! =) ). There's a reason I asked them because even though sure I can project targets around into space(high-low-point of wedge/triangle, projected from possible break area), I was wondering what the point of the info was if there is no setup attached to it. No setup = no trade. ... SeekingLight

Hi SL,

Let me share with you how I use this info (triangles/wedges) in my trading.

At that time, I had a long position at 1.3600. Price looked strong to me so I think "hey the price looks so positive, why not take a little more risk, triangles is a trend- continuation formation anyway". I followed the age-old wisdom "never average down, just average up".

Worst case scenario, price touches 3700 and reversed.
Stop loss at 3650 for all position.
Long @ 3600 = 50 pips
Long @ 3700 = -50 pips

Net 0 pips for the risk taken. (Good bargain).

I placed a buy order at 1.3700.

Price went up to 1.3718. Stop loss moved to 1.3668 (50 pips trailing stop).
Price retraced. Stop loss got hit.
1) Position 1 @ 1.3600 = 68 pips profits
2) Position 2 @ 1.3700 = -32 pips

Net profit 36 pips.

If I dont have a position at 1.3600, I wouldn't take the 3700 trade. I'll wait till price close higher than 3700 on Friday.

Hope this helps. :-)

Trades Status - Crazy night

What a crazy night!

Market went through 1.3700, triggered my buy order there, touched 1.3718 and retraced back to 1.3624 after hitting my stop losses at 1.3650 and 1.3626.
I should have moved the stop loss up to 1.3668 but I was at Stadium Merdeka celebrating the Merdeka. Sigh.

Net loss is 24 pips. If I moved the stop loss, it would have been a net 36 pips profit.

Next strategy :
1) Buy at 1.3600.